Paul Allen, a web analyst, has predicted Google+ will have more than 400 million users by the end of the 2012. In contrast, Facebook currently has more than 800 million registered users.
The news obviously has to be taken with a pinch of salt, and the fact that there are several conflicting estimates of the current size of Google+, make it all the more so.
The Global Web Index recently announced Google+ had more than 150 million active users, while Paul Allen’s most recent estimate holds it to be 62 million users. We last heard of Allen back when Google+ was in invitation-only stages, when he estimated the social networking site had already garnered 10 million registered users. Allen’s estimates are based less on real numbers of registered users, than on statistical derivations.
According to Allen’s figures, 625,000 members are signing in everyday, a number that will only increase as the year goes by, taking into to account that approximately 700,000 Android devices are being activated every day.
Following the current rate, Google+ will hit 100 million users by February 25th, 200 million users by August 3rd, and finally, 293 million users by the end of the year.
Elaborating on his method, Paul Allen said:
"Based on the accelerated growth I'm seeing and all the dials and levers Google can still utilize, and the developer ecosystem that will be developed, I predict that 2012 is going to be a breakout year for Google+ and that it will end next year with more than 400 million users."